According to the National Association of Manufacturers’ (NAM) Monday Economic Report for this week, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the U.S. fell 0.2% in June to 101.1, following a revised decline of 0.4% in May. The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. Over the first half of 2024, the LEI decreased 1.9%, which is less severe than the 2.9% decline in the second half of 2023. The decline is attributed to pessimistic consumer expectations, weak new orders, negative interest rate spreads and an increase in unemployment claims. 

According to the Federal Reserve, industrial production rose 0.6% in June, after a 0.9% increase in May, resulting in a 4.3% annual growth rate for the second quarter. Manufacturing output climbed 0.4% in June and 3.4% annually for the quarter. In June, durable manufacturing remained unchanged, nondurable manufacturing increased 0.8%, and other manufacturing (publishing and logging) rose 0.9%.