According to the National Association of Manufacturers’ (NAM) Monday Economic Report for this week, The Fed’s favorite inflation measure changed little over the past month. Personal consumption expenditures, the PCE Price Index, rose 0.2% in July and 2.6% from a year ago, reinforcing the high probability of a Fed rate cut in September. Prices for goods saw a slight decline of less than 0.1%, while prices for services rose 0.2%. On a three-month annualized basis, core PCE is up 1.7%, the slowest pace this year and a sign that inflation momentum is slowing. 

Consumer sentiment rose in August, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, inching up 1.5 index points above July and currently 36% above the all-time historical low from June 2022. The survey indicates that consumer’s short- and long-run economic outlook improved.