According to the National Association of Manufacturers’ (NAM) Monday Economic Report for this week, manufacturing conditions are improving but still weak in Q4. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. added 227,000 jobs in November, beating economist expectations of 211,000. Manufacturing employment rose by 22,000 jobs in November, not fully recovering from the 48,000 jobs lost in October. Manufacturing job openings are still in decline in both durable and nondurable goods. 

According to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, consumer sentiment improved for the fifth consecutive month in December, rising to its highest reading in seven months. Interestingly, the survey notes that rather than a sign of strength, this rise in durables was primarily due to a perception that purchasing durables now would enable buyers to avoid future price increases. The expectations index continues the post-election re-calibration. Democrats voiced concerns that anticipated policy changes, particularly tariff hikes, would lead to a resurgence in inflation. Republicans disagreed; they expect the next president will usher in an immense slowdown in inflation.