One of the more interesting findings in ISPA’s Q2 Bedding Market Quarterly (BMQ) is the sharp drop in mattress imports. But when we looked more closely at the trade data, we found a more complicated story. 

Imported mattress units fell 35.5% in Q2 compared with a year earlier, from about 1.54 million units to just under 1 million. Customs value fell even faster, down 42.8%, while average customs value per unit declined 11.3%. Year to date, imported mattress units are down 18.0%. 

Those are significant declines. But the data also show changes in where mattresses are coming from, the types of products entering the U.S. and how those products are classified. 

The Import Decline Is Real 

The BMQ measures adult mattress imports using three HTS classifications: 9404.21.0013, 9404.29.1013 and 9404.29.9087. Based on those classifications, imports fell sharply in both units and customs value during Q2. 

We wanted to know whether imports might simply be moving into other classifications, so we looked at several broader mattress-related HTS codes as a cross-check. These categories can include products outside the adult mattress market covered by the BMQ. 

We found the same basic pattern. Across this broader group, units fell from about 3.48 million in Q2 2025 to 1.95 million in Q2 2026, a 43.9% decline. 

The two measures aren’t directly comparable, but they point in the same direction. The Q2 decline appears to be a real contraction in imports, not simply volume moving between HTS codes. 

The Sourcing Map Is Changing 

Where those imports come from is changing too. 

Among the three mattress codes included in the BMQ, Indonesia accounted for a substantial share of the decline. Q2 customs value from Indonesia fell from about $60.8 million in 2025 to $27.5 million in 2026. 

Vietnam and Mexico moved in the other direction. Customs value from Vietnam increased from about $11.6 million to $13.4 million, while Mexico increased from $7.7 million to $11.5 million. Smaller sourcing countries, including Morocco, also became more visible in the data, although from a much smaller base. 

We see similar country-level patterns when we look at a broader group of mattress-related classifications. 

So, this isn’t simply a story of fewer imported mattresses. The mix of countries supplying the U.S. market is changing. 

That distinction matters when we look at value. Different sourcing countries can have very different average customs values. As the country mix changes, the overall average can move even if the price of comparable products doesn’t. 

That may help explain why average customs value per imported mattress fell from $65.10 to $57.74 in Q2. 

Country of origin is only part of what we’re watching.

The broader trade data shows significant activity in mattress-related classifications outside the three adult mattress codes included in the BMQ. Some cover a wider range of mattress sizes or materials. Others include products such as uncovered innerspring units that may be components rather than finished mattresses.

That raises another question: Are we seeing changes only in where products come from, or are we also seeing changes in what is entering the U.S., including the mix of finished mattresses and components for further assembly?

The trade data alone can’t answer that question, but it’s one we think deserves attention.

Tariffs, trade cases and other market conditions can affect sourcing decisions. Recent mattress-related enforcement actions have also brought increased attention to product classification, country of origin and declared value. At the same time, customs authorities are paying close attention to product classification, country of origin and declared value.

Unusual trade patterns don’t necessarily point to improper practices. They do tell us where to look more closely.

That’s why we’re monitoring a broader range of import classifications, sourcing countries and customs values as we work to understand how the market is changing.

Foundations Tell a Different Story

Stationary foundations show why it’s important to look beyond the topline numbers.

Imported stationary foundation units increased 15.7% in Q2, while customs value declined 22.7%. As a result, average customs value per unit fell 33.2%, from $82.79 to $55.34.

Why would units rise while value fall?

A closer look at product mix provides some context. Unit growth was concentrated in foldable and non-foldable stationary foundation categories, while mechanical foldable foundations and mattress supports declined.

Rather than broad growth across foundations, the data suggests a shift in the types of foundation products being imported. Because those products can have very different values per unit, the changing mix may also help explain the sharp decline in average customs value.

What We Know, and What We’re Watching

The Q2 data tell us more than simply “imports are down.”

We know mattress imports fell sharply, and the decline remains substantial when we expand the analysis beyond the classifications used in the BMQ. We also know the decline wasn’t evenly distributed. Some sourcing countries lost significant share while others gained. Product classifications are moving differently, and stationary foundations are following a very different pattern from mattresses.

What we don’t know yet is exactly what’s driving those changes.

How much is tied to tariffs and trade cases? Are companies changing suppliers or product configurations? How much of the decline in average customs value comes from changes in sourcing and product mix? Are inventory decisions affecting the numbers?

We’ll continue digging into these questions as new data becomes available.

We also want to hear what you’re seeing. Are your sourcing patterns changing? Are you seeing shifts in suppliers, product mix or import activity that help explain the numbers?

Industry input helps us connect the data with what is happening in the market and gives ISPA a clearer picture of the issues affecting our members.